Phoenix, Arizona — The Pacific is becoming increasingly active, with three tropical systems now being monitored for possible development and one disturbance potentially strengthening into a powerful hurricane near Mexico next week.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking the systems across the East and Central Pacific as conditions become more favorable for tropical development. Invest 99E is the system attracting the most attention, while Invest 98E is also becoming more organized. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E could attempt to redevelop closer to Hawaii.
Invest 99E Could Become a Powerful Hurricane
Invest 99E is located about 800 miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico, where it is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The National Hurricane Center said environmental conditions are favorable for additional development and that a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
As of the latest outlook, the system had an 80% chance of developing within seven days.
Forecast models indicate that 99E could become considerably stronger as it moves northward. While the exact intensity and track remain uncertain, the system could approach the Mexican coastline during the middle of next week.
Whether it makes landfall or remains just offshore is still unknown. However, even a system that stays offshore could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of western Mexico and Baja California.
Mexico Could See Heavy Rain and Strong Winds
The potential threat from Invest 99E is not limited to the immediate coastline.
As the system moves northward, a dip in upper-level winds could help pull the storm and its tropical moisture closer to Mexico. That could produce periods of heavy rainfall and stronger winds along portions of the western Mexican coast.
The storm’s eventual path will be particularly important. A track farther offshore would produce a different set of impacts than one that moves closer to land.
Forecasters are therefore expected to keep refining the projected track as the system becomes better organized.
Tropical Moisture Could Reach the Southwest
The same weather pattern could also have consequences farther north.
If Invest 99E develops and turns northward as currently expected, its moisture could eventually be drawn into the southwestern United States. Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado could see tropical-enhanced rainfall beginning as early as Tuesday, depending on how the system evolves.
That does not necessarily mean those states will experience direct tropical-storm conditions. Instead, the developing system could help transport additional moisture into the region, increasing the potential for downpours.
The exact rainfall coverage and intensity will depend on the storm’s eventual track.
Invest 98E Is Also Becoming More Organized
Invest 99E is not the only system showing signs of development.
Invest 98E is located nearly 1,000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The NHC said thunderstorms associated with the disturbance have become somewhat better organized, although the circulation remains broad and elongated.
Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and forecasters said a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system moves westward at around 10 to 15 mph.
Invest 98E also has an 80% chance of developing within seven days.
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Unlike 99E, the current forecast takes 98E westward across the Pacific rather than toward Mexico.
Former Tropical Depression 15-E Could Redevelop
A third area of interest is the remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of Hawaii.
The remnants remain disorganized, but environmental conditions could become favorable enough for some redevelopment next week. The NHC said a tropical depression could form south or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to latter part of next week.
The system currently has a 40% chance of development over seven days.
If redevelopment occurs after the system moves into the Central Pacific, it would receive a new designation under the basin’s naming system.
Pacific Could Stay Busy Into Next Week
The latest developments point to a potentially active stretch across the Pacific, although none of the three systems is currently an immediate direct threat to Hawaii.
The next East Pacific system to become a tropical storm would receive the name Odalys.
For now, attention remains focused on Invest 99E because of its proximity to Mexico and its potential to strengthen. The storm’s intensity, exact track and distance from the Mexican coast will determine how significant the eventual impacts become.
With two disturbances already showing signs of organization and a third system capable of redevelopment, forecasters will continue monitoring the Pacific closely through the weekend and into next week.
Are you watching the developing tropical systems in the Pacific? Do you think Mexico or the U.S. Southwest could see significant impacts from the developing weather pattern? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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