AUSTIN, Texas — After a relentless stretch of summer heat across Texas, residents looking ahead to autumn may be hoping for cooler temperatures and more comfortable weather.
The latest seasonal outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center offers a mixed picture for the state.
The forecast covers the three-month period from September through November and provides an indication of the temperature and precipitation patterns expected across the country.
While much of the United States is expected to remain warmer than average, the area with the highest chances for above-average temperatures is shifting farther away from Texas and toward the Northwest U.S.
That could offer at least some hope that Texas won’t experience the most extreme warmth expected elsewhere across the country.
Will Texas Finally Cool Down?
According to the Climate Prediction Center, above-average temperatures are favored across much of the United States this fall.
Texas, however, is not sitting directly beneath the strongest bull’s-eye for unusual warmth.
That does not mean Texans should expect an early or dramatic end to summer-like conditions. Instead, the outlook suggests that temperatures could remain warmer than normal in parts of the state while the highest probabilities for above-average temperatures are concentrated farther north and west.
For Texans dealing with August heat, that means September may not immediately feel like a complete change of seasons.
The seasonal outlook is also a broad prediction rather than a day-by-day forecast, so individual cold fronts, heat waves and periods of cooler weather can still occur throughout the fall.
What the Fall Precipitation Forecast Shows
The precipitation outlook is somewhat more encouraging for much of Texas.
According to the CPC, most of Texas is expected to have near-average precipitation during the September-to-November period.
That means the state is not currently facing a strong statewide signal for either an exceptionally wet or exceptionally dry fall.
There are, however, areas where the outlook tilts wetter.
The Texas Panhandle, areas extending toward the Big Bend region and locations farther west toward El Paso have a greater chance of receiving above-average precipitation.
For the rest of the state, precipitation is generally expected to remain closer to seasonal norms.
El Niño Could Change Texas Weather Later
One of the biggest factors meteorologists are watching is El Niño, a climate pattern associated with warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central Pacific.
The Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño to strengthen, with a very strong event considered highly likely during the fall and winter.
Typically, El Niño can bring cooler and wetter conditions to Texas, partly because it can help strengthen the southern jet stream and influence storm tracks across the southern United States.
But the current outlook does not show the classic cooler-and-wetter Texas pattern dominating this fall.
Instead, the combination of above-average temperatures and mostly average precipitation suggests that El Niño’s stronger influence could become more noticeable later in the season or during winter.
That will be an important trend for forecasters to watch as the season develops.
Rare Lunar Eclipse 2026 Arrives Thursday Night as 96% of the Moon Slips Into Earth’s Darkest Shadow
When Does Fall Officially Begin in Texas?
For weather purposes, fall begins sooner than many people might expect.
Meteorological fall starts September 1. Meteorologists and climatologists use September 1 as the beginning of fall because dividing the year into three-month seasons makes climate records and comparisons easier.
Astronomical fall arrives later.
The autumnal equinox occurs September 22, marking the point when daylight and nighttime are approximately equal.
For Texans waiting for relief from the summer heat, the arrival of September may bring a psychological change in seasons—but the latest forecast suggests that summer-like warmth may not disappear immediately.
As El Niño strengthens and the season progresses, weather patterns could shift, potentially bringing more noticeable changes later in the fall and into winter.
Are you ready for cooler Texas weather, or do you think the heat will stick around? Share your fall weather expectations in the comments.