SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, CA — A developing tropical system off the coast of Mexico has California residents and weather officials watching the Pacific closely after some long-range forecast models suggested the storm could eventually move toward the state.
The speculation intensified Monday, Aug. 31, after forecasts began circulating online showing a potential tropical threat to Southern California. Some headlines went much further, asking whether California could actually be hit by a hurricane this weekend.
For now, forecasters say that scenario is far from certain.
The disturbance is located well south of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula and hundreds of miles southwest of the Mexican coast. The system has become increasingly organized, with showers and thunderstorms developing around a broad area of low pressure.
Conditions in the region are considered favorable for additional strengthening.
Tropical System Could Become Hurricane Marie
The National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later Aug. 31 or during the overnight hours as the system moves northwest at roughly 10 mph.
If it develops into a named storm, it would be called Marie, the next available name on the eastern Pacific storm list. The system is currently being tracked as Invest 95E.
Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said the disturbance has attracted attention in the West because of long-range forecasts from the American GFS model.
The system is approximately 1,500 miles south-southeast of San Diego, according to Lowry.
Some extended-range model runs have suggested the possibility of the system becoming a hurricane and eventually approaching Southern California. However, forecasters emphasize that these projections are still several days away and could change substantially.
Forecasters Say California Hurricane Hit Is Uncertain
Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, said the system could potentially become a hurricane as early as next Sunday or Monday.
But the bigger question is where it will ultimately go. As of Aug. 31, the storm’s eventual track remained uncertain.
Westerink compared the possibilities to what happened with Hurricane Hilary several years ago, while also stressing that the system could ultimately bring nothing more than some rainfall to the region.
“We’re definitely tracking it,” Westerink said.
The system has a 90% chance of strengthening into a hurricane, according to Westerink. A tropical cyclone becomes a hurricane once its sustained winds reach at least 74 mph.
However, becoming a hurricane does not mean the storm will necessarily reach California as one.
Storm Could Weaken Before Reaching Southern California
There are several possible outcomes for the developing system.
One scenario would involve the storm remaining organized long enough to reach the region as a tropical storm after weakening from hurricane strength.
Another possibility is that the system loses its tropical characteristics entirely before reaching Southern California. In that case, it could become a post-tropical system while still producing heavy rain and gusty winds.
The National Weather Service office in San Diego said the system could potentially bring monsoonal moisture to parts of Southern California next weekend.
That could increase rainfall chances even if the storm never makes a direct approach. More direct impacts from a decaying tropical cyclone are considered much less likely.
Most Models Do Not Show Direct California Hit
Despite the attention surrounding the forecast, officials are urging people not to assume a hurricane is headed for California.
The San Diego National Weather Service office said fewer than 5% of weather-model solutions supported a more direct impact from a decaying tropical cyclone as of Aug. 31.
Other meteorologists have reached a similar conclusion, saying the majority of model guidance does not currently show a credible hurricane threat to California during the second week of September.
That means the storm’s development should be monitored, but there is currently no reason to treat a direct hurricane landfall as the most likely outcome.
California Has Seen Tropical Storm Impacts Before
A direct hurricane landfall on California’s coast would be extraordinarily unusual.
Modern hurricane records show that no hurricane has made a direct landfall on the California coast. Two storms came relatively close, including one in 1958 and another in 1939.
The 1939 storm, known as El Cordonazo, approached Los Angeles and produced significant rainfall, but its winds weakened to tropical-storm strength before landfall.
Tropical remnants have affected California and Arizona more frequently. At least 50 storms or hurricanes have affected or moved over the region when remnants and tropical storms are included.
More recently, the remnants of Hurricane Hilary in August 2023 brought historic flooding and strong winds to parts of the Southwest, with daily rainfall records set in Los Angeles, San Diego and Death Valley.
For now, forecasters are watching Invest 95E closely while emphasizing uncertainty.
Would you be concerned if this system moved toward Southern California, or do you think the current hurricane headlines are overblown? Share your thoughts in the comments.